Japan’s “post-Abe” stance remains unchanged

Taiwan vice President Lai Ching-teh is in Tokyo to mourn the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the highest-ranking serving Taiwanese official to visit Japan in 37 years. Experts believe that As Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced to inherit Abe’s foreign policy, China will not react violently to Japan, and Taiwan-Japan friendship should be realized in concrete ways.

The funeral of Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was shot dead while speaking on the streets of Nara, took place on July 12. Many Japanese media reported that Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-de, accompanied by his Representative to Japan Frank Hsieh, visited Abe’s home to offer condolences on July 11. In the evening, Lai, as a family member, went to the altar of Zang-ji temple to offer condolences, interacted with Japanese lawmakers, and attended the funeral on July 12. Japan’s foreign ministry also confirmed that Lai had come to pay his respects as a friend of Abe and said it was a private trip.

It is the highest-ranking Taiwanese official to visit Japan in 37 years since Former President Lee Teng-hui visited Tokyo as vice president in 1985.

Lin Quanzhong, executive director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Wuhan University, believes that the LIBERAL Democratic Party (LDP) has achieved a very good result in the upper house election. If there are no major events in the next three years, there will be no electoral pressure, and the “post-Abe era” without Abe will officially begin. Kishida clearly wants to use the three years of stability in office to continue to follow Abe’s legacy and the WILL of the United States, integrating the power of the party faction, the bureaucracy and the chaebol.

Lin Quanzhong pointed out that September 29 is the 50th anniversary of the normalization of Japan-China relations, and Kishida made this decision with only two months left, which can be seen as the future without Abe’s China policy will continue Abe’s tone of “following the United States to resist China”.

“Taiwan is a part of China and there is no so-called vice president,” Wang Wenbin, spokesman of The Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a regular press conference on July 12. “After the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Taiwan authorities took the opportunity to engage in political manipulation, which will never succeed.” He added that the Chinese embassy had lodged “solemn representations” with the Japanese government over Mr Lai’s attendance at the funeral of former Japanese prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Taiwan’s Foreign ministry said On July 11 that Lai was on a private trip.
Regarding the condolence visit to Abe’s home, Wang said, “We have not received an official notice from Japan, and we will discuss it after receiving it.”

All eyes are on the Chinese official reaction and whether it will affect japan-China relations in the future.

Lin Quanzhong, executive director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Wuhan University, expects China to react to Mr. Lai’s visit, but not to criticize Japan too harshly.
“I think the reaction in Beijing will still be based on criticism of Lai Ching-tak [Taiwan],” he said. Critics of Japan are likely to reiterate that china-japan relations should be based on four political documents and that Taiwan-Japan relations should be limited to unofficial, working-level exchanges. If it’s just that, the Chinese are being polite. The focus of attention should be on whether the Kishida administration will criticize the government for conniving at Taiwan independence and sending the wrong message to the international community, so as to judge the future direction of China-Japan relations.

Lin said that any faction of the LIBERAL Democratic Party is greatly influenced by Abe’s China policy and will maintain the basic line of the Abe era, and China should also understand this reality.

“It was kishida’s priority to deal with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations with China after the election,” Xie said. However, China sent warships around Japan in an attempt to influence the Japanese elections before last year’s lower house elections, and again before this year’s upper house elections, only to serve as a shield for the regime it wants to pressure. As for lai Qingde’s low-key visit to Japan on a private trip, if China continues to maintain Wolf warrior diplomacy, it will probably be the Japanese samurai sword sold out.”

According to Xie Wensheng, China’s Wolf diplomacy has not only failed to ease Japan’s anti-China attitude, but also left no room for leaders of other factions of the Liberal Democratic Party to speak for China, which is a problem That China needs to face.
Previous Japanese prime ministers have different attitudes towards Taiwan, and Abe is recognized as the Japanese prime minister who supports Taiwan most in terms of security and economy and trade. In a public speech in September 2021, Abe said, “If Taiwan happens to Japan, it will happen to the US-Japan alliance.” In April 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Abe wrote to the Los Angeles Times, calling for a clearer US strategy toward Taiwan.

Izumi Yutai, Japan’s representative to Taiwan, said on His Facebook page on July 8 that The Kishida cabinet will carry on Abe’s dedication to Japan and Taiwan in his lifetime and carry on his legacy, and make every effort to keep Japan and Taiwan as the world’s strongest “democratic neighbors.”

Many people are paying attention to whether The taiwan-Japan relations will suffer a setback due to Abe’s sudden death. Mr Lai’s condolence visit has led many to wonder whether relations between Taiwan and Japan will improve as a result.

Lin Quanzhong, executive director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Wuhan University, believes that Lai’s quick visit to Japan is kishida’s declaration that he will inherit Abe’s line toward Taiwan, giving Taiwan a dose of reassurance.

“This of course is good news for Taiwan,” he said. “Beijing is nervous about what to do next. But I don’t think there’s any need to read too much into Lai’s visit, because it’s an emergency situation and there won’t be much more than condolence. As president Ma Ying-jeou went to Singapore to pay his respects to Lee Kuan Yew, official relations between Taiwan and Singapore will not improve much. Kishida’s decision to visit Japan shows that he is confident enough to handle relations with Beijing and will send a message of goodwill towards Beijing at key points in the future, following the principle of ‘one step forward, one step back’ in diplomacy.”

Taiwan and Japan have a special relationship. Political figures and people have frequent exchanges, but they have to keep a low profile due to sino-Japanese relations. After Kishida’s declaration, it is certain that he will inherit Abe’s direction of “taiwan-Japan friendship.”